Session Name: Non-Organ Specific: Public Policy & Allocation
Session Date & Time: None. Available on demand.
*Purpose: The increase in deceased donor numbers since last decade has been widely reported. We aim to analyse if the trend in rise of numbers has been optimum as per the forecasting casting model based on historical organ procurement data from UNOS/NHSBT UK from 2005-2014.
*Methods: We created a Forecasting model using exponential moving average method for time-series forecasting . We compared the forecasted figures to the actual deceased donor numbers for last 5 years (2015-2019) . We also compared the forecasted versus actual donation rates in the minority population group.
*Results: The total actual versus forecasted deceased donation rates in US have kept pace p=0.46. In 2019, the actual donation numbers were in excess of forecasted digits but the actual donation rates in minority population in US have shown a negative trend compared to the forecasted figures p=0.002. In the UK, the actual donation rates were inferior compared to the forecasted numbers p=0.02. The actual organ donation rates were sub optimal in minority population too p=0.007.
*Conclusions: The actual total deceased organ donation rates in US exceed the forecast but fall in actual donation from minority population compared to forecasted figures indicates failure of social initiatives. The UK actual total and minority population deceased organ donation trends have fallen behind the forecasted figures. More creative initiatives are needed to involve the minority population to improve the numbers
To cite this abstract in AMA style:Sharma H, Sharma A. Has the Proportional Rise in Deceased Organ Donation Rate Over Last 5 Years Been Optimal? Data-based, Forecasting Model Analysis of UNOS/NHSBT UK Donor Data [abstract]. Am J Transplant. 2021; 21 (suppl 3). https://atcmeetingabstracts.com/abstract/has-the-proportional-rise-in-deceased-organ-donation-rate-over-last-5-years-been-optimal-data-based-forecasting-model-analysis-of-unos-nhsbt-uk-donor-data/. Accessed June 16, 2021.
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