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Effect Of The SRTR COVID-19 3-month Carve-out On Program-specific Transplant Outcome Evaluations

J. Miller1, G. R. Lyden1, D. Zaun1, B. Kasiske2, R. Hirose3, A. Israni2, J. Snyder1

1Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, Minneapolis, MN, 2Hennepin County Medical Center, Minneapolis, MN, 3University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA

Meeting: 2022 American Transplant Congress

Abstract number: 9031

Keywords: COVID-19, Graft failure, Monitoring, Mortality

Topic: Administrative » Administrative » 01 - Quality Assurance Process Improvement & Regulatory Issues

Session Information

Session Name: Quality Assurance Process Improvement & Regulatory Issues

Session Type: Poster Abstract

Date: Saturday, June 4, 2022

Session Time: 5:30pm-7:00pm

 Presentation Time: 5:30pm-7:00pm

Location: Hynes Halls C & D

*Purpose: The SRTR January 2022 program evaluations (Jan 2022 program-specific reports [PSRs]) applied a COVID-19 carve-out where follow-up for transplants performed before March 13, 2020, ends on March 12, 2020; transplants performed from March 13, 2020, through June 12, 2020, are excluded; and transplants performed after June 12, 2020, are followed as usual. This study quantified the impact of the carve-out and investigated the effect of censoring COVID-19 deaths (in addition to the carve-out) on first-year posttransplant outcomes metrics in the Jan 2022 PSRs, with particular attention to investigating variation among OPTN regions.

*Methods: The program-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for graft failure and patient death were estimated under 2 alternative scenarios and compared with the published HRs. In the first scenario, the COVID-19 carve-out was removed. In the second scenario, the COVID-19 carve-out was retained, but deaths due to COVID-19 infection that were not already carved out were censored.

*Results: Compared to the HRs from the Jan 22 PSRs as published with the COVID-19 carve-out, adding censoring for the COVID-19 deaths that are not already removed by the carve-out results in very little change on average in the HRs (beta=1.0, r2=0.96). Removing the COVID-19 carve-out has a relatively larger impact on the estimated HRs (beta=0.89, r2=0.82) By geography, there were 2 slight yet statistically significant differences. When removing the carve-out, the average HR in the Northwest (OPTN Region 6) was 0.049 lower (95% CI: -0.087 to -0.011) than under the program evaluations with the carve-out. When censoring COVID-19 deaths in addition to the carve-out, the average HR in the Midwest (OPTN Regions 7, 8, and 10) was 0.009 lower (95% CI: -0.015 to -0.003) than under the program evaluations as published with only the COVID-19 carve-out.

*Conclusions: The HRs estimated by censoring COVID-19 deaths are highly correlated with those estimated with the carve-out alone. Removal of the carve-out resulted in greater variation in estimated HRs than the censoring scenario. Little variation by OPTN Region was observed, with the carve-out resulting in slightly higher HRs on average in OPTN Region 6. Censoring COVID-19 deaths imparted little regional variation, with HRs in the Midwest reduced on average by 0.009. The impact of the carve-out on program-specific evaluations will continue to be evaluated.

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To cite this abstract in AMA style:

Miller J, Lyden GR, Zaun D, Kasiske B, Hirose R, Israni A, Snyder J. Effect Of The SRTR COVID-19 3-month Carve-out On Program-specific Transplant Outcome Evaluations [abstract]. Am J Transplant. 2022; 22 (suppl 3). https://atcmeetingabstracts.com/abstract/effect-of-the-srtr-covid-19-3-month-carve-out-on-program-specific-transplant-outcome-evaluations/. Accessed May 28, 2025.

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