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Designing Continuous Distribution for Liver Allocation

M. Mankowski1, N. Wood2, D. Segev3, S. Gentry2

1Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands, 2US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, 3Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Meeting: 2022 American Transplant Congress

Abstract number: 315

Keywords: Allocation, Liver

Topic: Clinical Science » Liver » 60 - Liver: MELD Allocation*

Session Information

Session Name: MELD Allocation and Large Data

Session Type: Rapid Fire Oral Abstract

Date: Monday, June 6, 2022

Session Time: 5:30pm-7:00pm

 Presentation Time: 5:30pm-5:40pm

Location: Hynes Room 313

*Purpose: The continuous distribution framework is required for all future organ allocation policies. Continuous distribution changes the allocation paradigm, prioritizing candidates according to a composite allocation score(CAS), a weighted sum of medical priority, candidate biology, patient access, and placement efficiency. This change in the policy requires designing weights for each attribute of the CAS, replacing priorities encoded in geographical boundaries of former allocation policies.

*Methods: We used simulation with optimization to find the weights of our CAS (Figure-1) with an objective to reduce overall death and not exceed the current travel burden, while maintaining the Acuity Circles special prioritization of status 1, pediatric, and ABO candidates. Outcomes using our CAS were compared to those using Acuity Circles over a three-year simulation using LSAM SRTR 07/01/2013 to 06/30/2016 data.

*Results: Compared to Acuity Circles, our CAS (Figure-1) decreased the number of deaths from 7771 to 7679, average travel distance (273NM vs 264NM), and median travel distance (201NM vs 186NM). Our CAS increased the graft travel distance only for high MELD and status 1 candidates while reducing travel distance for other candidates (Table-2.) The special prioritization of pediatric, status 1, and ABO O&B candidates remained in CAS, reducing deaths among these groups (Table-1).

*Conclusions: Our CAS reduced overall deaths and decreased travel burden while maintaining other transplant metrics at near-current values. Advanced computational tools, like simulation optimization algorithms, will be invaluable in creating policies for continuous distribution to achieve desired policy outcomes.

Tab 1. Deaths over three years simulation; format: average (standard deviation) of 50 runs.
Acuity Circles Composite allocation score p-value
Deaths 7771.22 (45.50) 7678.84 (40.65) <0.001
Pediatric 134.22 (7.97) 113.52 (5.97) <0.001
Status 1A 27.88 (3.20) 8.30(1.89) <0.001
Status 1B 23.92 (3.47) 16.86 (2.70) <0.001
ABO A 2962.16 (22.57) 2976.14 (26.95) 0.007
ABO B 769.46 (10.83) 749.8 (9.76) <0.001
ABO AB 136.78 (5.47) 136.82 (5.36) 0.969
ABO O 3896.96 (37.52) 3809.9 (34.19) <0.001
Deaths by MELD
40 – 37 699.0 (16.46) 638.28 (15.41) <0.001
36 – 33 373.98 (12.77) 376.98 (12.7) 0.266
32 – 29 640.9 (15.15) 632.74 (12.59) 0.006
28 – 15 3786.7 (23.27) 3775.36 (23.02) 0.016
14 -6 2270.64 (10.75) 2255.48 (9.54) <0.001
Tab 2. Travel distance (NM) over three years simulation; average (standard deviation) of 50 runs.
Acuity Circles Continuous Distribution p value
Average Travel Distance 272.66 (2.61) 264.30 (1.68) <0.001
Median Travel Distance 201.14 (1.29) 186.49 (1.39) <0.001
Status 1 Average travel distance 433.17 (12.97) 686.22 (11.05) <0.001
Status 1 Median Travel distance 314.01 (7.61) 529.05 (11.82) <0.001
MELD >= 37 Average travel distance 298.74 (6.66) 319.28 (2.27) <0.001
MELD >= 37 Median Travel distance 255.4 (4.35) 293.11 (2.57) <0.001
MELD < 37 Average travel distance 250.09 (2.95) 204.09 (1.57) <0.001
MELD < 37 Median Travel distance 174.85 (3.11) 166.09 (1.04) <0.001

Figure 1. Composite allocation score (CAS)

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To cite this abstract in AMA style:

Mankowski M, Wood N, Segev D, Gentry S. Designing Continuous Distribution for Liver Allocation [abstract]. Am J Transplant. 2022; 22 (suppl 3). https://atcmeetingabstracts.com/abstract/designing-continuous-distribution-for-liver-allocation/. Accessed May 31, 2025.

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