The probability of liver transplant (LTX) and death for candidates varies by donation service area (DSA), making it difficult for candidates to understand the likely outcomes specific to their area. We developed an online tool to describe differences in outcomes on the LTX waiting list by DSA. Using the SRTR database, we took a series of snapshots of waitlisted adults aged 18 years or older on 8 days at least 90 days apart over a 2-year period from June 1, 2012, through May 31, 2014. Status 1A candidates were excluded. Using competing-risk methodology, the probability of 1) deceased donor LTX, 2) living donor LTX, 3) remaining on the list, 4) death or removal from the list due to being too sick, 5) removal due to clinical improvement, or 6) removal due to other reasons was determined at various time points from 30 to 365 days. Estimates are reported by DSA, by Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Region, and nationally for comparison by allocation MELD category (6-14, 15-24, 25-29, 30-34, and 35-40) and blood type. Outcomes varied greatly by DSA (Fig. 1). For patients with a MELD of 25-29, the 25th and 75th percentiles of the probability of LTX (or death/too sick) ranged from 29% (4%) to 67% (10%) across DSAs. A screenshot of the calculator is shown in Fig. 2. LTX candidate outcomes vary substantially by area of the country, and this outcome calculator provides information that may be valuable in assisting candidates and their providers in making informed treatment decisions.

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