Background and Objective: Delay graft function (DGF) is most commonly defined as post-operative dialysis requirement in the first week after renal transplantation. It has a great impact on the outcome of renal transplantation. There were several DGF-prediction models proposed around the world, however, without specific one for Chinese population. This study tested the five DGF prediction models and compared the discrimination and calibration of the models, in order to select a model which could be the best one to fit in with the clinical practice in China, and guide our therapeutic strategies.

Methods: Our study analyzed 711 deceased donor transplantation performed in The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University between Feburary 5, 2007 and August 20, 2016. Individual clinical characteristics and DGF were included and analyzed with statistical method. DGF risk was predicted using five models published in recent years (2010 Irish, 2003 Irish, 2014 Chapal, 2015 Zaza and 2009 Jeldres). Receiver operated characteristic curve analysis was used to assess the predictive power of clinical variables and scoring systems. The Hosmer-Lemeshow “goodness-of-fit” test (HL test) was taken for model calibration.

Results: DGF was significantly associated with recipient age, cold ischemic time, warm ischemic time, donor creatinine, donor hypertension and cardiac death (p<0.05). Models raised by Irish in 2010 and 2003 had a good predictive capacity (area under the ROC curve at 0.734 and 0.725), while others not so good (AUC: 2014 Chapal 0.629, 2015 Zaza 0.588, 2009 Jeldres 0.482). HL test demonstrated that only model raised by Irish in 2010 was well calibrated (p=0.959), while others not (p<0.05).

Conclusion: The DGF prediction model of Irish in 2010 was the best model on predicting risk of DGF in Chinese population with good discrimination and calibration.

CITATION INFORMATION: Zhang H, Qin S, Zheng L, Liu L, Wang C. Prediction of Delayed Graft Function in Chinese Kidney Allograft Recipients. Am J Transplant. 2017;17 (suppl 3).

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