The number of liver donors has steadily declined since 2006, despite numerous efforts to increase donation. Then in 2013 to the current projected numbers for 2016, we have observed a surge in liver donors.

Objective: It was our aim to analyze this trend and identify root causes.

Methods: We analyzed all donors procured for liver transplantation in the United States from January 1, 2002 to June 30, 2016. We only excluded donors younger than 18 years of age. We standardized the liver donors to the US Census population estimates by year (age > 18 years) and expressed them as donors per million population (pmp). The yearly death rate and CDC drug over dose rates were presented in comparison to the donors pmp. We performed linear regression to elucidate a correlation between changes in liver donors pmp and drug overdose rates.

Results: There was a 26% increase in liver donors pmp from 2002 to 2015. We are currently in midst of a three-year surge in liver donors (25.7 liver donor pmp in 2012 and 30.4 pmp projected in 2016), an 18% increase after 7 years of decline. Standardized donor deaths from anoxia increased 300% during the study period and comprised 96% of the observed surge in liver donors. On the state level, changes in CDC drug overdose rates had a poor correlation to changes in liver donors pmp (R2 = 0.007). We observed significant geographic variation in the surge of liver donors.Conclusions: The recent surge in liver donors can be accounted for by an increase in donors who died from anoxia, seemingly implicating the narcotic drug epidemic; however, correlation with drug overdose rates is poor.

CITATION INFORMATION: Rana A, Goss M, Rees J, Kueht M, Vierling J, Mindikoglu A, Halazun K, Sussman N, Kaplan B, Wood P, Galvan N, Cotton R, O'Mahony C, Goss J. A Surge in Liver Donors After Years of Decline, Is This the Tip of the Iceberg? Am J Transplant. 2017;17 (suppl 3).

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