Simple Kidney Transplant Graft Survival (KTGS) Calculator Predicts 5- and 10-Year Allograft Survival.
1Transplant, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh
2Research Department, United Network for Organ Sharing, Richmond
Meeting: 2017 American Transplant Congress
Abstract number: 351
Keywords: Kidney transplantation, Outcome
Session Information
Session Name: Concurrent Session: Kidney Clinical Complications 2
Session Type: Concurrent Session
Date: Monday, May 1, 2017
Session Time: 4:30pm-6:00pm
Presentation Time: 5:42pm-5:54pm
Location: E354b
To develop a predictive 5- and 10-year Kidney Transplant Graft Survival (KTGS) calculator at the time of transplant for living donor (LD) and deceased (DD) recipients using recipient, donor and transplant variables. Analyses were performed using OPTN data for all adult recipients of solitary kidney transplants during 2001-2012. Unadjusted 5 and 10-year LD and DD graft survival rates were calculated for each transplant year using Kaplan-Meir (KM) method. Predictive models for graft survival were developed for LD and DD transplants using Cox regression. Using rank correlation method for censored data, 8 most significant variables that affected graft outcome were selected for LD (recip age, black race, diabetes, PKD diagnosis, dialysis duration, donor age, donor black race, transplant year) and DD (recip age, black race, diabetes, PKD diagnosis, dialysis duration, KDPI, CIT and transplant year). The refitted models were validated using bootstrapping without data splitting. Continuous calibration to assess the agreement between observed and predicted risk of graft failure was performed using the bootstrap method. A total of 109,578 DD and 70,248 LD transplants between 2001-2012 were analyzed. There is improvement in 5- and 10-year graft survival transplants done in more recent years. Validation of the final 10-year survival model using bootstrap method revealed an index of concordance of 0.623 (for DD) and 0.617 (for LD). The results of the calibration analysis shows that the agreement between observed and predicted graft survival is much closer at 5 years as compared to 10 years. Table shows predicted 5 and 10-yr survival rates with 95% CL with various combinations of variables. A simple KTGS calculator can be used to predict 5 and 10-year kidney allograft survival.
| Donor | R age (yrs) | R black(Y/N) | R dm | KDPI/Dage/black donor (Y/N) | CIT (min)/Dialysis duration (mon) | 5-yr pred graft survival %, 95%CI | 10-yr pred graft survival %, 95% CI |
| DD | 45 | N | Y | 50/-/- | 600/48 | 77.4, 77.8-77.9 | 56.3, 55.3-57.3 |
| DD | 45 | N | N | 70/-/- | 600/48 | 79.2, 78.7-79.7 | 59.3,58.4-60.2 |
| LD | 55 | N | N | -/45/N | -/12 | 89.2, 88.7-89.7 | 75, 74-76 |
| LD | 45 | Y | N | -/45/N | -/12 | 88.2, 87.2-89.2 | 72.9, 70.8-75.2 |
CITATION INFORMATION: Sood P, Cherikh W, Mehta R, Tevar A, Hariharan S. Simple Kidney Transplant Graft Survival (KTGS) Calculator Predicts 5- and 10-Year Allograft Survival. Am J Transplant. 2017;17 (suppl 3).
To cite this abstract in AMA style:
Sood P, Cherikh W, Mehta R, Tevar A, Hariharan S. Simple Kidney Transplant Graft Survival (KTGS) Calculator Predicts 5- and 10-Year Allograft Survival. [abstract]. Am J Transplant. 2017; 17 (suppl 3). https://atcmeetingabstracts.com/abstract/simple-kidney-transplant-graft-survival-ktgs-calculator-predicts-5-and-10-year-allograft-survival/. Accessed November 25, 2024.« Back to 2017 American Transplant Congress